Of course, events over the next few months could upend that scenario. Perry, the Texas governor, or Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, might stumble. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann could revive her struggling campaign. former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman might catch fire. a new candidate, such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, might jump in.
Then there’s the scheduling of those caucuses and primaries, which isn’t set.
For now, campaign strategists assume Florida will be the fifth contest, as early as Jan. 31, and the first in a big state.
Florida Republicans don’t follow presidential politics as intensely as do GOP activists in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nor do they expect one-on-one encounters with candidates.
When the nominating process rolls into Florida, “the days of the house parties are behind you,’’ said Phil Musser, a former director of the Republican Governors Association and a frequent consultant in the state.
In the next two weeks, Florida Republicans will get ample attention, beginning with Monday night’s two-hour debate sponsored by CNN and the Tea Party Express.
The forum will include the eight contenders who debated last week in California, where Perry made his national debut. Romney is almost certain to renew his criticisms of Perry for calling Social Security’s funding structure “a Ponzi scheme.’’
The candidates also will have their first collective chance to dissect the jobs proposal that Obama outlined Thursday.
The Orlando debate starts off the three-day “Presidency 5’’ event where thousands of Florida Republicans will mingle, hear speeches and vote in a presidential straw poll.